Developers, Whom AI Said Would Eliminate First, Saw the Little in Hiring Data
Date
Jun 29, 2026
Classification
- Startups
#
- Trends/Industries
Author
According to an analysis by venture capital firm SignalFire, software engineers, who were cited as the top priority for AI replacement, actually turned out to be the most resilient role. While overall hiring at major tech companies decreased by 25% compared to 2019, the decline in engineering roles was limited to just 11%. Analysis showed that the same AI technology put steeper pressure on job groups with a high proportion of structured tasks, such as marketing and recruiting.
Software engineers, who were identified as the first job category to be replaced by AI, were actually found to be the most resilient role in an analysis of hiring data by venture capital firm Signalfire.
While overall hiring dropped by 25%, engineer hiring decreased by only 11%... New hiring share at 55%
SignalFire tracked hiring trends at major tech companies to compare changes by job function. According to the analysis, while the total hiring volume of large tech firms decreased by 25% compared to 2019, the decline in engineering roles was limited to just 11%. By 2025, engineers accounted for 55% of new hires at major tech companies. This result is the exact opposite of predictions that the demand for developers would plummet as AI coding tools became more widespread. On the other hand, some job functions, such as marketing and recruiting, experienced a steeper decline.
"AI handles structured code, humans make decisions"… Value of skilled developers actually rises
This metric is interpreted in two ways. A leading analysis suggests that AI tools have boosted engineer productivity, enabling the creation of more software faster, which has consequently increased the value of skilled developers. As AI took over the task of writing standardized code, humans shifted to areas requiring judgment, such as system design, verification, and integration. The analysis indicates that the rapid proliferation of AI coding tools like Cursor and GitHub Copilot increased the workload handled by the same number of personnel, and as companies decided to produce more software, the demand for skilled labor remained stable or increased.
Entry opportunities for junior employees are narrowing… AI impact varies by job category and rank
However, the impact varies by job level. Concerns are also being raised that as AI takes over entry-level tasks, opportunities for newly hired junior developers to gain experience are diminishing. Those with greater resilience are closer to skilled personnel responsible for design and decision-making. Signalfire analyzed that hiring decreased more significantly in job categories with a high proportion of standardized tasks, such as marketing and recruiting. In essence, the same AI technology has led to diametrically opposed results depending on the nature of the job.
This data demonstrates that the simplistic equation of "AI equals job disappearance" may differ from reality. The same technology is reshaping the labor market by reinforcing some roles while pressuring others. Domestic companies must also assume that the impact of AI operates differently across job categories and ranks when designing recruitment and retraining strategies for development personnel.
#SoftwareEngineer #AICoding #SignalFire #DeveloperHiring #LaborMarketRestructuring
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